14 January 2009
How to beat heat delays at the Australian Open
Interruptions to play at the Australian Open because of hot weather can be avoided with the
aid of forecasts of match duration, says Victoria University’s tennis statistician Tristan Barnett.
Dr Barnett says that by predicting the likely duration of a match, tournament organisers can
avoid scheduling long matches at times when hot weather is likely.
“A heat rule for deciding whether matches should be delayed is critical for the safety of
players, especially in the extreme weather that often occurs during the Australian Open in
January,” Dr Barnett says.
“But none of the models in use takes into account match duration, which is a crucial factor.”
“A match lasting five hours over five sets is far more likely to be affected by extreme heat than
one lasting one hour.”
The heat rule at the Australian Open allows the match referee to suspend play when
environmental conditions are extreme. The suspension takes place at the end of the set in
play and matches inside the main arena could continue with the roof closed.
“There are a few problems with this rule,” Dr Barnett says. “First, the suspension could favour
one of the players depending on their position in the match, creating an unfair advantage.
Then there are the logistical problems of rescheduling the matches that follow.”
“If organisers use the forecasting model that predicts the likely length of each match, then
those matches that are likely to run into heat problems can be scheduled for the evening or
the following day.”
The model predicted a long five set match in the famous Roddick vs El Aynaoui encounter at
the 2003 Australian Open, and received international recognition in The Times
Dr Barnett says, “The forecast is based on the likely length of each game, which relies on
serving and returning statistics for each player. With this information we can predict the
likelihood that the match will last more than two hours and if, in the case of men’s matches, it
will likely go to five sets. In both these circumstances, heat is more likely to affect play.”
“Last year ten matches were heat delayed on the second day of the qualifying tournament,
including one in which a woman player fainted. The forecasting model can help prevent these
outcomes.”
Dr Barnett is available for comment and statistical advice on the Australian Open
Mobile: 0421 511 280
Media contact: Jim Buckell, A/Senior Media Officer
Marketing and Communications Department, Victoria University
Ph: (03) 9919 4243; mobile: 0400 465 459; email: jim.buckell@vu.edu.au
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